[MM-MALTS-L] What drives price?

Fri Oct 26 10:54:30 CEST 2007

Hi Tom & Ralph and everyone,

I was in e-conversation with various people across the web quite a while ago
and my rules for how you can spot a decent investment opportunity were
shared with a few, specifically PLOWED members, but they may as well be
shared with anyone who might even be interested.  For what it's worth, I've
been appreciating malts since 1989 and collecting since 1995.

To distil it to its very basic essence, those malts with the most upside are
those that are assessed as excellent while affordable when they come out
(and aren't hideously overpriced and where you could take a caning if
someone decides later on that the stuff is not shifting and starts
discounting).  There was a very wise man who once said "you make your profit
when you buy, not when you sell" - i.e. you have to know enough to know that
you've got a bargain when you purchase.

Run outs of old stock when livery changes are good opportunities, but only
if the consensus amongst palates you trust is that it's an 85/100 or more
whisky.  Rarity has its own value and drivers, but you're going to realize a
greater capital return on stuff that people know and actually think is worth
drinking. I've seen historically important whiskies sell for SFA, mainly
because the contents were assessed as verging on or not being potable (being
polite).

I think what drives the price about Black Bowmore (for example only) is that
the product was just amazingly and exceptionally and gobsmackingly good - I
can verify this for the Black Bowmore First Edition, but not for the rest,
because I've never tried the others.

I think there's a different dynamic in play for the "silent stills' such as
Kinclaith, Linlithgow/St Magdalene, Killylock and Glenflagler here the
prices, are driven by different factors. With the internet, you could end up
with 20-30 international collectors with much more money that sense spending
obscene amounts of money tracking down obscure malts from defunct
distilleries.   

Almost all of my profitable whiskies have been 'lucky' purchases. I've only
really used my own 'formula' in a couple of cases and only when I've had the
ready cash.  If you come across something you think is great and is
reasonably priced and has some chance of becoming a "cult" malt, buy a six
pack or more - you won't regret it.  Drink 2 or 3 and sell the rest in 7-8
years time and your drinking would have been for free.   

As a rider I would like to point out that I have no whisky in the market at
the moment and have never put whiskies on e-bay or any similar web-based
auction site.  I do reserve the right to sell some of my stash in the
future, but it probably won't be via any overseas operation.

I'd also like to observe that Peat & Jack (courtesy of fellow Malt Maniac,
Serge Valentin) have a particularly acerbic take on the outlandish excesses
of marketing fools/tools. Check out Whisky Fun - Google it if you're
interested.

For what it's worth

Slaintje

Craig Daniels

Chairman

Malt Whisky Society of Australia

Organisers of Australia's Third Malt Whisky Convention Melbourne 24-26
August 2007 

  _____  

From: mm-malts-l-bounces at grsnet.net [mailto:mm-malts-l-bounces at grsnet.net]
On Behalf Of whiskyhill at att.net
Sent: Tuesday, 23 October 2007 11:00 PM
To: MaltManiacs operated former 'MALT-L' Whisky List
Subject: Re: [MM-MALTS-L] What drives price?

I know, I know....  I had planned on bringing a bottle of 1976 Ardbeg cask
2394 to a future PLOWED convention in Las Vegas. Originally it sold at the
distillery (this was one of the Y2K bottlings along with the 2392) for 100
pounds, or about $150 US back then. I bought the bottle from Alistair
(formerly of the Lochside Inn) in 2002 for 200 quid. Now I see the Whisky
Exchange has it listed for 850 pounds (or approximately $1700).  That makes
me think about selling it now. Am I daft?

BTW, we would love to see you there again one of these years Ulf, if your
schedule would allow it!

Slainte,

TB

-------------- Original message from "ulf at buxrud.se" <ulf at buxrud.se>:
-------------- 

Dear Ralph 

Yeah several of us 'early' enthusiast experienced the same. Perrsonally I
bought several of the dual versions  of legendary Springbank 'green' from
Milroys in the early ninties. Price approx 45 pund each. I used most of
them as house whsiky for unfancy every day drinking. Today the bottles goes
for 2.000 to 2.500 pound. Ouch...

Perhaps my early consumption made the version rare and l drove up the
prices.... 

Lesson learned, make a rare version even rarer....(;-)

So, I may be on of the culprits at least in the Springbank  case. 

Ulf 

------------------------------------------------
  ____
  \__/ Ulf Buxrud ulf at buxrud.se
  /  \ ========================================
_ \__/ _ A Keeper of the Quaich
\\ || // Member of the Malt Maniacs
 \\||// <file:///\\%7C%7C\>  
  \||/   Website www.buxrud.se/
   || Fax(+46)40-160756, Phone(+46)40-160722
   || Snailmail c/o DataAnalys Scandinavia AB 
   || P.O.Box 20 048, SE-20074 MALMOE, Sweden 
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   || UISGE BEATHA GU BRATH
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Fren: professormalt at comcast.net
Skickat: den 16 oktober 2007 13:12
Till: MaltManiacs operated former 'MALT-L' Whisky List
<mm-malts-l at grsnet.net>
Dmne: [SPAM] Re: [MM-MALTS-L] What drives price?

GrandaRalph,

I think if we knew the answer to those questions, we could all retire and
become whisky futures speculators.  A case in point, in 1994 I bought
several bottles of Black Bowmore 1st release and a couple bottles of the
1963 Anniversary Bowmore (commemorating the 30th year of acquisition by
Morrison).  There were thousands of bottles of the Black, but only 500 of
the Anniversary.  I drank all of the Black and kept one of the Anniversary
bottles squirreled away.

We all know how that worked out, the prices for Black shot through the roof
in just three years and the Anniversary is still virtually unknown (even
though IMHO it was the better of the two Bowmores). 

Go figure.

Slainte,

Brian

-------------- Original message -------------- 
From: Ralph Katzenell <ralphoosh at 012.net.il> 

> Greetings all. 
> The recent discussion on pricing and collectability prompts me to wonder:
what 
> exactly is it that drives up the price of a particular bottling? More 
> specifically, is it common for single cask one-offs (batch size say 190 -
550 
> bottles) to become collectors items. How long does it take.? How is its 
> "collectability"established? Does it need time, distribution and initial
easy 
> availability (based on multi-cask batching) to become a collectors item. 
> Granted there are the advertizing promotions deliberately intended to
appeal to 
> "faux-collectors". I'm more interested in applying the question to
standard 
> bottlings intended for sale for consumption. 
> 
> Granpa Ralph 
> 
&a mp;g t; _______________________________________________ 
> MM-MALTS-L mailing list 
> MM-MALTS-L at grsnet.net 
> http://lists.grsnet.net/mailman/listinfo/mm-malts-l 

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